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Boris Johnson’s opportunity to become prime minister of the UK came in the context of Brexit. That meant he had to pick a side and in doing so he relied on what he knew. For years he had been paid extraordinary fees for journalism consisting of daft lies about the EU. However, he wasn’t lying in a meaningful sense because his untruths were open and transparent; being found out was not a consideration. He knew that he had an audience demanding his yarns on one side and a naive opposition on the other. What was unknown were the numbers of citizens on each side.

Dominic Cummings – among others – had access to the required data. Following Steve Bannon – Trump’s one time advisor – with his emphasis on Lenin, Cummings shared with some on the left a desire to destroy the democratic state and the establishment.* Crucially, he knew too the nature of the most significant divide in society, and he had the figures and the technology required. Unlike traditional Leninists, he and many others know how to use bourgeois democracy to destroy itself.

Perhaps in quiet moments Boris Johnson wonders how he got himself in among this lot but he realises that their analysis is essentially correct. He knew that his choice was between being a demagogue or a democrat, between siding with those citizens who despise participative, argumentative politics as “establishment” and those citizens amenable to argument. He chose because he had to; there is no effete middle ground.

The opposition, however, is fractured because too many liberals and leftists cannot or will not face these changed circumstances. They prefer to think and act according to their traditions.

When Hilary Clinton referred to Trump supporters as a “basket of deplorables”, there was adverse reaction from the left but the reaction was of two kinds. Firstly, there was distaste for the terminology but there was also a defence of the people to whom she was referring, the sort of people who – it was argued – would be supporters of the left were it not for lies told them. Similarly, in Britain a commentator, bemused by Johnson and Brexit supporters’ acceptance of lies, put it down to “the bovine credulity of the minority”.**

There is a very basic issue in political communication here. Consider that familiar old belief that citizens are alike and if treated with respect, told the truth and presented with arguments most will go with the best argument. There are two problems here – one for the Left, especially the Marxist left, and one for all thinking people.

On the left many socialists – even those who say they have abandoned revolution in the meaningful sense of the word – retain a dilemma: should citizens be won over by presenting them with compelling argument or should citizens be manipulated in their own best interests.

The former risks being dismissed as social democracy or even liberal democracy. The latter is a legacy of revolutionary socialism, and the idea is to grasp leadership of popular protest movements and try to give them expression in class terms. It quickly parts company with anything recognisably socialist for a very simple reason: an unwillingness to interrogate “class” means acceptance of opinion pollsters’ definitions. The unfortunate outcome is that “working class” loses its Marxist, transformative meaning. It comes to refer to a mere pressure group, a pressure group that is there to be led or represented in the competition for resources demanded of the “establishment”.

It is at this point that Dominic Cummings, Steve Bannon and their likes can see their best chance of winning. Society is divided between passive citizens who seek demagogues, and decry politics and debate, and participative citizens who rely on debate and the truth on which it depends. Because liberals and leftists are united in a refusal to confront passive citizenship, they go on talking among themselves about truth and discourse, and patronising passive citizens, never dreaming of confrontation – no matter how foul and right wing the beliefs expressed by “ordinary people”.

Democracy would be unthreatened if the number of passive citizens were small or if there was no effective means to mobilise them. The Brexit campaign – especially its on-line component demonstrated the opposite.

Democracy – representative democracy – is threatened because the means to destroy it by popular will now exist and its defenders “the establishment” cannot throw off their traditions to defend it. The idea of defending a progressive establishment against “ordinary people” is too much for them. The likes of Bannon, Cummings and Johnson must hope that it remains so.

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*https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/06/lenin-white-house-steve-bannon


**https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/31/britain-has-become-a-land-of-permanent-crisis-suits-blustering-liars-of-brexit

There is a great deal of talk about a divided Britain. There is almost no talk about the nature of that division, a division which is present in other countries.

There are of course many divisions in British society but Boris Johnson, his adviser, Dominic Cummings, and others fully understand today’s primary division. This understanding produced a referendum result and explains subsequent Brexit tactics, especially the systematic lying which so bemuses thinking citizens. It bemuses to the extent that a commentator wondered about “the bovine credulity of the minority”.* It is both rude and inaccurate to describe these citizens as “bovine”. Though they are not deceived, they are certainly credulous in seeking untruths and charismatic leadership – they seek a demagogue. Their numbers are too great to be dismissed as a mere minority. Crucially, any aspiring demagogue now has the media to address them and to mobilise them into a potent political force.

It’s far from a secret. Firstly, Dominic Cummings is the unlikely bearer of a gift to democracy. He despises democracy and would destroy it, yet he tells how the Brexit referendum was won. He tells of a society with millions of disaffected citizens, uninterested in politics, argument, complexity or claims/counterclaims about truth, and the means to deliver the messages they want. Secondly, the whole thing was dramatised for television.** Thousands of people know about this.

Most democrats, however, spurn the gift and pretend that the TV drama never happened or was just a scary fiction. They prefer to believe in the existence of a society which if it ever existed, has vanished over the last several decades. It is the traditional belief in a Demos composed of equal citizens who participate through public discourse and if they have strange beliefs, it is because someone has successfully deceived them. The naive democrat thinks that merely countering the lies will bring deliverance.

The naive democrat simply refuses to countenance the existence of millions of citizens who prefer lies, who indeed demand lies, who want leadership and who utterly reject public discourse. This naivety is irresponsible and dangerous because it surrenders reality to the enemies of democracy.

Regrettably it is mainly leftists who refuse to confront today’s reality but it is understandable because they have a lot to lose. This isn’t the place to rehearse Marxist theory or history but some points have to be made. Suggesting that Leftists need to question their most fundamental thinking is asking a great deal but it must be asked of them because democracy and indeed left relevance is at stake. Essentially the left will be pained at the very notion that positions taken up by poor or working people are to be opposed, and at the harsh reality that so many of them reject the left’s patronising approach to liberation by telling them the truth. Most of all – and despite sharing their views – leftists will be embarrassed by taking sides with thinking liberals in defence of a democracy that relies on thought and public discourse and against a democracy that relies on huge numbers of those they consider their natural constituency. The very structure of political society has changed as has the technology to speak to it. For the left to opt out by pretending that it is still the 20th century is to abandon the struggle of our time.

Too few of those who would side with democracy and be inclined to save it, can bring themselves to acknowledge that Cummings is indeed right in just one terrifying respect: he’s addressing a new reality. They therefore fail to engage with it, fail to develop a relevant counter argument and strategy, and particularly fail to address, organise and speak for the thoughtful citizen – dismissed by Cummings, Johnson et al. as “the establishment” – on whom theoretically and practically democracy rests.

A change is urgent because those passive citizens – encouraged and patronised – may be inching towards the majority capable of ending the established laws and structures on which non-revolutionary-left advance depends. That is what Johnson and Cummings want; listen to them.

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*

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/31/britain-has-become-a-land-of-permanent-crisis-suits-blustering-liars-of-brexit

** “Brexit: The Uncivil War”, Channel 4.

 

 

Dominic Cummings isn’t running Britain and those who trot that out are missing a very real threat. Dominic Cummings is an advisor to the UK Prime Minister. His advice is taken because it is based on a plausible, compelling argument that crucially is located in the really existing present and in that respect it doesn’t face a rival.

What little opposition it faces is of three equally irrelevant types. Firstly, some are based in the vanished industrial world of the mid 20th century. Secondly, there is the tragi-comical pseudo-opposition, sharing the same “people power” sloganeering that energises the Cummings argument. Thirdly, there are the ad hominem attempts to portray Cummings as mad.

The first and second – sad to say – are leftist and their proponents would be upset by any suggestion that they support Cummings but that’s not the suggestion. It’s different and it’s more than a suggestion; the reality is that they inadvertently strengthen the Cummings argument. Firstly, the left is too often strangely unaware that thinking people find it easy to spot an argument made nonsense by reliance on conditions long gone – in this case the conditions of mid 20th century industrial capitalism – and whatever problems thinking people might have with Cummings, it’s clear that at least he’s talking about the world as it is today.

Secondly, Cummings advice to the UK Prime Minister is to try for a general election in which the P.M. would campaign for the people against the politicians. Familiar? Of course it is. Sections of the left have been positing the people against variously the government, the state, the political class, the establishment for years with no regard to whether “the people” were calling for left or right movement. They were simply “the people” and anti-establishment; they were to be followed until they could be led. Cummings, however, knows the difference between left and right and where the people are headed. He can thank those on the left who refuse to think for helping to mobilise his people.

Thirdly, ad hominem attacks are easy but pointless. Reading Cummings blogs etc. will reveal a man who reveres strong leaders, authority, manliness and Bismarck.* That’s certainly eccentric, some might view it as crazy and he’s been described as a sociopath. That’s all irrelevant because it leaves his argument and analysis of society untouched. Should those who despise the man achieve his downfall, nothing more will change. The views, analysis, argument will remain unchallenged by anything both plausible and relevant to today – and “the people” will remain mobilised against the establishment.

Cummings is astute but it would be silly to assume that he is unique. There are certainly others as aware. He knows a lot but three things are uppermost in his mind and make anti-democratic voting possible.

i) The flaw at the heart of mass democracy

A very old fear among democrats is that as the franchise extended and extended, greater numbers of passive, easily swayed voters became available to demagogues. This cannot threaten democracy as long as their numbers are relatively small or they are beyond the communicative reach of the demagogue.

ii) The antagonised passive citizen

With universal franchise many passive citizens declined all participation while some others voted for a variety of reasons other than deliberation and judgement but few were hostile to the system itself – the establishment. That has changed. Cummings is one who has watched the polls for years. He knows populism and the nature of it. He understands the current meaning of “anti-establishment” and the numbers involved.

iii) The demagogue’s medium

It is no longer possible for democrats to ignore the passive, inactive, disaffected citizen because now they are many and because now they can be reached and mobilised. Cummings proved this with his Brexit referendum campaign. Relying on data mined from social media he then used social media to deliver approaching-bespoke messages to citizens who wouldn’t normally pay any attention to politics or who seldom voted or who were otherwise disaffected. He knew the kind of message that would get their attention and he knew how to reel them in.

Essentially Cummings knows that he is dealing with a world changed and that he is threatening democracy which he despises. He concentrates on the passive, disaffected citizen. Communication is not directed at those who are concerned with truth and argument; they are the establishment and irrelevant. There is no need to confuse matters by addressing them. They are no longer essential to winning a majority; they are not needed.

The problem is that few of those who would side with democracy and be inclined to save it, care to acknowledge that what Cummings describes is indeed the new reality. They therefore fail to engage with it, fail to develop a plausible counter argument and strategy, and particularly fail to address, organise and speak for the thoughtful citizen on whom theoretically and practically democracy rests.

There is a degree of urgency in all this because while opponents of the Cummings perspective ignore the thoughtful citizen on whom democracy relies, his passive citizens may be inching towards a majority.

* https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/dominic-cummings-boris-johnson-otto-von-bismarck-brexit-a9045941.html?fbclid=IwAR3fTSMLgx-gquc7QWyT4OGSf_NTcZ2wVNQD-kYOCXNbJRttInzX5qKYlmE

 

The TV drama, Brexit: The Uncivil War, gave an entertaining, accurate and worrying glimpse of the future of political communication and of democracy itself. It would be comforting to think it particularly British but it could happen anywhere. The conditions are certainly present in Ireland and the methods will be applied where and whenever possible.

A first glance can lead off into the mistaken view that this is all utterly new and a product of the net society. The reality is that today’s technology is being used to exploit something that has been ever present in democracy and feared by democrats.

The Brexit e-campaign
Before going on to talk about that old and feared weakness in democracy, lets look at what the Brexit campaigners did and which is available to any campaigner, party or candidate with the will and the money to emulate.

1. They studied the issues, fears, prejudices etc. which preyed on the minds of their target voters.
2. They distilled these feelings into a small number of slogans which connected the feelings of their targets to the political objective of their clients.
3. Knowing what their target voters wanted to hear, they told them: that delivery – or indeed their voters’ deliverance – was not only possible but crucially it was without any risk of negative consequences.
4. They achieved messaging that was close to bespoke. Using extensive data, amenable on-line voters were identified and sent simple, tailor-made messages – telling them what they wanted to hear.

In brief, this amounts to nothing more than routing quite particular, near-personal messages to voters, messages telling them that voting the client’s way will sort out their issues or whatever concerns them. Familiar? Of course it is. That’s because it’s not new. However, the delivery system and the scale of information on the targeted voters are new, i.e. there is now the web and the ability to mine it for masses of personal data.

There is, moreover, one other new feature – and it’s crucial. Opponents of democracy with deep pockets have become aware of something radical. They know that undesirable election results can be achieved by using today’s technology to exploit democracy’s oldest and most intractable flaw: the manipulation of passive citizens, their target audience. Mass manipulation has become both possible and affordable.*

The risk of tyranny inherent in democracy
Generations of democrats have worried about the dangers of passive – as opposed to participative or deliberative – voting. The march towards universal suffrage consisted of reforms allowing wider and wider participation in voting. Each enlargement was supported by democrats who saw all as equal – at least in terms of voting – and opposed by conservatives who feared what the uneducated mob or easily swayed herd might vote to implement.

As any democrat would be quick to point out, the conservative arguments were not only elitist but served to defend wealth and other privileges. However, the arguments were not dismissed as nonsense. Democrats could see the danger of huge numbers of votes cast without deliberation. John Stuart Mill for example feared the masses, feared that they might impose majority doctrines and limit liberal freedoms, might be easily swayed by and elect demagogues. Mill considered weighted voting – giving more than one vote to the educated – but eventually he placed his faith in people. He argued that the responsibility of voting would change voters, that – aware of the power of their voting decisions – they would engage, examine arguments, deliberate, come to judgement and only then vote. In other words, voting would improve them: make participative, engaged, republican citizens of them.

Fairly similar arguments appeared in recent decades when the democratic potential of the net became apparent. Net optimists felt that those deprived of the information necessary to full citizen participation would find it on-line; citizens would free themselves of the influence of demagogues, conventional wisdom and anyone who would stifle information.

Today’s demagogues and other anti-democratic chancers who want to win an election without winning an argument know full well that Mill’s faith and the hopes of net optimists have not been realised. Not only are there masses of voters – perhaps constituting a majority – ripe for manipulation but the technology exists to find and message them.

There is of course a question of law here. The e-Brexiteers certainly violated electoral laws – laws on funding – and they violated emerging norms, soon perhaps to become law, in relation to gathering and effectively selling personal data. This raises the question of whether electoral law is capable of protecting democracy from an inherent flaw which has been routinely exploited largely without criticism by virtually all parties and candidates.

The little anti-democratic attacks that became the norm
What the e-Brexiteers did differed only in scale and efficiency from conventional campaigns. Indeed, it’s likely that for a very long time now electoral success has been impossible without patronising passive voters who have no wish to be addressed with political arguments or talk of risks, priorities, alternatives, unpleasant consequences, clashes of interest etc. On the contrary, they want to be soothed, told that their problems will be solved or that sought-after resources will be delivered. Candidates know this and crave effective methods for delivering a simple, preferably local, targeted message. In Ireland cynics reduce this to the cliche, “All politics is local.”

Political campaigners use many different media. Taking a look at one of the oldest reveals it to be a small, inexpensive version of what the e-Brexiteers did so spectacularly on a huge scale. The similarity is so great that the difference is almost pathetic.

Now, very few people will admit to paying a blind bit of attention to political leaflets/pamphlets delivered into their domestic letterbox. Most regard these as junk mail and bin them on sight. This is well known and it can be hard to explain why campaigners resort to them. Explanations are offered: they’re relatively cheap; they give some level of public visibility; delivery can give loyalists and activists something to do; and crucially in a world of mass media, leaflets can be localised.

The most cursory look at leaflets reveals that they tend to have little or no political content in any meaningful sense of the term. They deliver useful public information on the likes of welfare entitlements or changes to the tax regime. They tie the candidate to the locality in two ways: pictures in the locale or with local notables at an event; and expressions of support for local campaigns for, say, a swimming pool, a library, playing field or school.

There is no intention here to open up a discussion of local political leafleting. The practice is raised merely to illustrate that patronising local, passive citizens is a mundane, accepted feature of political campaigning. That it is so accepted is telling: democracy has been reduced to numbers and the thoughtful, deliberative, participating, republican citizen has been largely forgotten. Securing a vote has become a tactical affair of showing concern for or involvement in resolving issues. Argument is not uppermost and contradicting a voter would be almost out of the question. Indeed pointing to the existence of thoughtful, republican voters risks being dismissed as elitist or “out of touch”.

Long promised comes to pass
It is hardly surprising then that when the technology and data became available to exploit the passive citizen, it would be used enthusiastically by those smart enough to realise its potential. What is surprising is that so many who ought to know about or who pretend to know about democracy express shock at a large well-executed attack on democracy while they have been unconcerned at the thousands and thousands of small but similar attacks that have been allowed to form an accepted part of the political process. What the e-Brexiteers did was waiting to happen and the ground was prepared by activists, many of whom now appear shocked and silly.

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* There’s a seeming paradox here which will be left for now: the mass is accumulated by near-bespoke messaging.